A Modular Earth System Model Emulator for Regional eXtremes

Climate extremes count among the most impactful consequences of climate change, also under low-emissions scenarios consistent with the aims of the Paris agreement.

However, they are not factored in the derivation of emissions scenarios informing international policy options in reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Indeed, the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underlying the development of these emissions scenarios only consider changes in mean climate when evaluating options for e.g. changes in agricultural production, biofuel production, afforestation or other land use changes.

In the MESMER-X project, we will address this shortcoming by developing an operational Earth System Model (ESM) emulator providing climate extremes projections under different emissions and land use scenarios at negligible computational cost. This will allow for the first time a full interactive coupling between IAMs and climate scenarios.

The MESMER-X emulator will be made open source and broadly available to scientists, policy-makers and society.

The MESMER-X project will provide a disruptive innovation enabling the identification of realistic and resilient options for regional land use development consistent with a net-zero CO2 emissions future, with a focus on the European continent.

The results of the MESMER-X project will be of high societal benefit for informing policy development consistent with the Paris agreement on European and global scale, including the European Green Deal