Invisible Cutbacks? Disentangling Municipal Patterns of Declining Social Assistance Recipiency in Early 2020s Sweden

Research problem and specific questionsIn recent years, the number of social assistance recipients has declined rapidly in Sweden. Currently, a historically low proportion of the population receives the benefit. Meanwhile, there is limited understanding of the mechanisms underlying this trend. The project investigates two types of explanations and their potential interaction.

Firstly, it considers indications that the need for social assistance has decreased.

Secondly, it examines whether any significant changes in the municipal social services´ administration of the benefit can be linked to the decrease.Data and methodFirst, register data at the municipality level (n=290) is utilised to estimate the explanatory value of structural factors for the percentage decrease in benefit recipients from 2020 to 2023 at the local level.

Furthermore, survey data is collected through a stratified random sample of municipalities (n=105) to capture the occurrence and nature of changes in the social services´ administraion of social assistance.

The study design enables analyses of both the significance of structural factors and the potential importance of changes in social services´ practices for the decrease in benefit recipients.

Supplementary focus group interviews are conducted to deepen the understanding of the quantitative results.Societal Relevance and UtilisationMany stakeholders currently request research to understand the declining benefit levels. Unlike studies with significant delays, this project can swiftly provide valuable insights for practice.

Conducted in collaboration with representatives from the National Board of Health and Welfare and the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions, the project aims to facilitate the application of its findings.

Results are disseminated through a conference gathering practitioners, researchers, and students.Plan for project realisationThe project will run for three years and consists of two main sub-studies conducted with some overlap.

Except for the last six months, when the applicant works full-time on the project, the applicant´s activity level varies between 50-65%. The last six months are dedicated to research outreach and summarising insights from the project as a whole.