Adapting to temperature extremes in pregnant women and infants: past trends and future scenarios (PRoMEThEUS)

Research problem and specific questionsNon-optimal or extreme temperatures negatively affect public health and well-being. Their detrimental impacts are unevenly distributed, with pregnant women and infants bearing a disproportionate burden.

Moreover, both the occurrence of temperature extremes, notably heatwaves, and their impacts are projected to increase under future climate change.Taking Sweden as a case-in-point, this project aims:to study the vulnerability to non-optimal and extreme temperatures in pregnant women and infants in Sweden;to study the role of adaptation to non-optimal and extreme temperatures on maternal and infant health;to develop scenarios of maternal and infant related health outcomes from plausible future extreme temperatures in Sweden accounting for socio-political dimensions of adaptation processes.Data and methodAccessing novel data resources from Sweden (DOHaD), we will quantify the excess risk of maternal and infant related health outcomes attributed to non-optimal and extreme temperatures.

We will include an analysis of historical trends and drivers of the adaptation comparing Sweden with England and Italy-Lombardy Region, a temperate oceanic and a Mediterranean climate country.

Leveraging available climate projections, we will also develop scenarios of maternal and infant related health outcomes of plausible future temperature extremes using storylines.Societal relevance and utilisationThis effort is timely: anthropogenically-driven global warming has led to an increased frequency, duration and intensity of heatwaves, a trend that is foreseen to continue in the coming decades.

Concurrently, cold spells in several mid-latitude regions continue to be the norm, in part due to enhanced temperature variability.

This points to the urgency of reducing the impacts on the most vulnerable, such as pregnant women and infants, by leveraging early-warning systems, and developing new recommendations and long-term adaptation strategies.Plan for project realisationThe project will last 3-years (overall cost 4 999 613 SEK) and consists of 3 WPs.

Costs cover salaries (3 675 334 SEK), and communication, travel and overhead (1 324 279 SEK).

Raffetti with expertise in public health and epidemiology will lead the project in collaboration with experts in medical, physical and critical social sciences.The project will be part of the Swedish Center for Impacts of Climate Extremes.