A future to believe in? Social optimism in times of structural change

The notion that our societies are progressing towards a brighter future has long been taken for granted.

However, recent studies suggest that people in many rich countries – including Sweden– are rather pessimistic about the future of their countries. This project examines social optimism as an empirical phenomenon, including its causes and consequences.

Concerning causes, the project traces lack of faith in the future to socio-economic inequality and its interaction with ongoing structural transformations in the labor market.

Increased knowledge about social optimism is valuable in itself, because social optimism is arguably a central component of social well-being. In addition, social optimism might enable other desirable outcomes at the individual and societal level.

The project explores this thesis by studying the influence of social optimism on health, fertility decisions, and social participation.

The methodological strength of the project consists of combining new survey data that contain subjective factors - such as social optimism - with administrative register data and contextual data that capture actual changes in the labor market, as well as in countries and local communities, over time.In a time of social uncertainty, when Sweden – like the rest of the world – faces the challenge of rebounding from a pandemic, it is important to understand the broader social context in which social optimism grows.

The project contributes to insights into how overall structural transformations such as globalization and technological development shape people´s views of the future, including whether society is moving towards the better future.

This knowledge is of great relevance to a broad array of societal actors - including political parties across the ideological spectrum - that have identified fading social optimism as a growing social problem.