ATTributing heAt-related excess mortality and morbidity to Climate cHange

Climate change is known to affect deaths and hospitalizations associated with heat exposure in Europe.

Yet, despite a broad epidemiological knowledge base on the future impacts of climate change, few studies so far have formally attributed heat-related mortality and morbidity to climate change that has already occurred over the past century. ATTACH contributes to the closing of this important research gap, with a special focus on recent European heatwaves.

The project will make use of death count and hospitalization statistics from major cities in Germany, and will combine state-of-the-art epidemiological approaches (time-series Poisson regression including distributed-lag non-linear models, and meta-regression techniques) with an innovative approach to climate impact attribution.

This novel approach derives counterfactual climate data, mimicking a world without climate change, from detrended observations.

In line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement, effective communication and dissemination activities will ensure that results can be applied to improve adaptation measures for protection of population health from the adverse consequences of climate change.

The institutional and training arrangements will guarantee an impactful knowledge transfer between the applicant and the host, opening up opportunities for fruitful collaboration at the interface of epidemiology and climate sciences.

Overall, ATTACH will significantly improve the prospective of the applicant for developing a career as an independent research group leader in the field of climate change and health.