Causes and consequences of forest reorganization: Towards understanding forest change

Forest ecosystems around the globe are undergoing rapid reorganization.

The unabated continuation of climate change, the accelerating rate of alien species introductions, and the precipitous loss of biological diversity are altering the structure and composition of forest ecosystems. As a consequence, novel ecosystems are emerging. However, the trajectories to novelty and the consequences thereof remain widely unknown.

This limits the ability of forest policy and management to counteract undesired developments and safeguard the supply of ecosystem services to society. Here I will investigate the causes and consequences of reorganization in forest ecosystems.

I will use a concerted combination of complementary methodological approaches to understand why reorganization takes place, when and where reorganization is likely to happen, and what impacts reorganization will have on biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Replicated experiments will be conducted both in the field and in walk-in climate chambers to answer whether compounding climatic extremes could result in bottlenecks of forest regeneration.

A next-generation forest landscape model will be developed to investigate how invasive alien species alter forest development.

Based on these insights the FORWARD project will derive operational early warning indicators of reorganization, and test their generality and applicability in the field for landscapes on three continents.

Subsequently, a machine-learning aided synthesis of big datasets will be used to compile the first map of global hotspots of forest reorganization. Finally, robust management strategies for addressing reorganization will be developed.

Jointly studying the effects of global change on tree mortality and regeneration across scales, the FORWARD project will bring about a new level of understanding of forest change, and will provide the data, tools and strategies to tackle one of the most pressing challenges of current forest policy and management.