Surviving Aridification – a Framework for Ancient Resilience (SAFAR)

Why do some communities suffer during dry periods while others remain stable, or even thrive?

The answer to this question is not simple and lies in a combination of socio-political, economic and environmental factors.

Prior archaeological research often oversimplifies, correlating palaeoclimate reconstructions to one archaeological dataset (e.g., site counts). If patterns align, it is deemed climate-induced “collapse”, otherwise, the community was “resilient”. Stronger case studies incorporate diverse datasets to provide narratives explaining why this was the case.

However, the common aim of these projects, to inform modern policy, has not been achieved.

For this, we must conduct formal comparative analysis on many case studies to produce scientifically-robust and generalisable rules that are applicable in modern contexts. Two key aspects of this will be addressed in this project. First, we will develop uniform methods for quantifying aspects of climate-resilience with archaeological evidence.

Second, we will construct a comprehensive framework integrating these variables, their interrelationships, and uncertainties.

We will achieve this using an iterative process, where our framework is continually tested and improved using five diverse case studies (in Greece, India, Iraq, Ireland, and Mexico), selected due to a high density of available evidence. This seminal work will unlock archaeology’s potential for policy discussions and streamline future research.