Fertility intentions and fertility decline in Sweden

Over the past decade fertility rates in Sweden have declined somewhat unexpectedly. This development has occurred in tandem with even greater fertility declines in the other Nordic countries.

Our project aims at investigating these puzzling developments in more detail and to explore the factors that may drive them.

We use register-linked data of the new Swedish Generations and Gender Survey 2020 (GGS2020) and its predecessor, the GGS2012, to compare changes in fertility intentions of Swedish women and men over the recent period of fertility decline.

We look at links between fertility intentions and women’s and men’s employment, education, and partnership life courses, and their attitudes and perception of their future to assess the role of structural and subjective factors in fertility intentions. We study the role of social differentials in these associations and their changes over time.

Using the GGS2012 and linked register data that cover fertility outcomes in subsequent years we analyze whether fertility intentions voiced in 2012 were subsequently realized or not, and which factors that have contributed to different positive and negative outcomes.

With both GGSs we furthermore investigate the extent to which rising insecurity and perceived uncertainties are related to recent fertility change by looking at the link between people’s assessment of recent societal transformations, recent crises and their fertility intentions.