Health Economic Analysis incorporating effects on Labour outcomes, Households, Environment and Inequalities (HEALTHEI) for food taxes

The excess consumption of calories in the UK leads to obesity, which is a cause of diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Unhealthy diets, in which consumers eat excess quantities of food High in Fat, Sugar and Salt (HFSS), are causing ill health and are an influential factor in creating health inequalities.

Increasing the price of HFSS products could reduce the consumption of unhealthy foods, with potential health benefits. There is increased political interest in weight loss due to the Covid-19 crisis. There are many options available to target different food products, or nutrients profiles, at point of sale, or targeting manufacturers.

The specification of these policies could impact the overall benefits to health and/or consequences to other sectors (employment, economy, environment) and health inequalities. There is a need for evidence on the potential health, economic and environmental benefits of food taxes in the UK. However, food taxes may be unpopular, and the negative consequences of food taxes must also be considered.

The potential for unintended consequences and adverse effects in the wider system, such as impacts on low income households, is also needed to identify policies with potential for implementation.

HEALTHEI (Health Economic Analysis incorporating effects on Labour outcomes, Households, Environment and Inequalities) will identify the most promising strategies for food taxes and generate evidence on their potential impact on health and wider societal outcomes. We will establish: 1. Which food taxes are most likely to be feasible and acceptable to implement in the UK?

2. What are the likely consumer responses to price changes on products consumed in and out of home? How do these responses vary between social groups?

3. What are the likely industry responses to pass-through price increases to consumers? Will the policies lead to reformulation?

4. What are the likely impacts of food taxes on wider societal outcomes including, household spending by social groups, local/global supply chains, environmental outcomes and macroeconomic indicators?

5. What are the likely impacts of food taxes on health outcomes, health related quality of life, National Health Service (NHS) costs, health related labour outcomes? 6. How are health outcomes distributed and do they reduce health inequalities?

HEALTHEI will inform policy makers on the viability of food taxes, and provide a detailed systems evaluation of the potential impacts of three policy options. We will work with the public, food advocacy groups and policy makers to tailor food taxes, assess the relative benefits of these, and improve dissemination to public and policy makers.

We will use UK datasets to understand how consumers and industry will most likely respond to policies. Consumer and industry responses may vary between social groups and foods and this will impact the effectiveness and distribution of benefits. Opportunities for reformulation will be explored as this will likely vary between food groups.

We will use multiple modelling frameworks to extrapolate simulated changes in purchases to wider societal outcomes. For the health and health related impacts the SPHR diabetes prevention microsimulation model will allow dynamic simulation of individuals' nutritional intake and outcomes to be stratified by social groups. We will explore uncertainty in our estimates with probabilistic and scenario sensitivity analysis.