Exascale Exoplanet Modelling

Answers to two of the most important questions facing humankind - Does life exist beyond Earth? and How will Earth's climate change in the future? - are potentially within our reach. These two questions are intricately linked by the requirement of a detailed theoretical understanding of how planetary environments evolve as complete systems, including life itself, and cannot be answered with observations alone.

Huge investment in observational facilities targeting planets discovered beyond our solar system, or exoplanets, is being made with even higher levels planned in the coming decade. This opportunity is concurrent with the realisation that existing numerical climate models are not sufficient to provide the accuracy of predictions required to adapt to, or mitigate for, climate change.

This realisation has motivated the Met Office to invest in the development of a completely new, state-of-the-art computational framework (termed LFRic) capable of overcoming current barriers in accurately predicting our own climate. Similarly, solving puzzles hampering our progress in understanding exoplanets also requires a step-change in model performance, particularly in light of the imminent advancement of observational facilities (e.g., James Webb Space Telescope, 2021; Extremely Large Telescope, 2025; Terra Hunting Experiment).

My research sits at the confluence of these factors, boosted by investment in a new building housing both the Astrophysics group and the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter.

Using this UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship I will deliver a research programme focused on co-developing the next generation of climate modelling software, launched from a foundation of a strong, and unique, existing knowledge transfer connection with the Met Office, and exploiting the combination of the described large-scale investments. The research programme will be coupled with a coherent programme of innovative engagement activities/resources (e.g., https://tinyurl.com/y48tewug), linking with partners to enhance interaction with research and further study, and enhance pedagogical practices themselves.

The unique flexibility, focus and freedom afforded by a Future Leaders Fellowship will allow me, with the group formed as part of the programme, to create a hub of excellence leading exoplanet research intricately linked to efforts to predict our own changing climate.

The breadth of the programme, addressing outstanding issues for both gas giant and terrestrial or Earth-like exoplanets, alongside the unique real-time connection, via software development and exchange of people, between exoplanet and Earth-system science, partnered with the wider impact and engagement programme will make this UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship a unique endeavour. The primary objectives are to adapt and co-develop LFRic, adding capabilities beyond the model's Earth focus, to address key areas of exoplanet research: why irradiated gas giant exoplanets have much larger radii than models predict, combining detailed models of the chemistry (including condensates/clouds and photochemistry), dynamics and radiative transfer (or heating) to interpret the currently confounding observations of exoplanets across the mass range, and finally quantify the impact of processes such as stellar flares, clouds and convection, as well as simple biogeochemical cycles, on the possibility and signposts of life on other planets.

The shared development and knowledge exchange will enable progress to also benefit efforts to better predict Earth's climate as it moves beyond the current regime.

Crucially, the developments will be performed following an open-source approach, allowing a wide group of beneficiaries both within Earth system and exoplanet science to benefit. The link of the research with engagement will also benefit students both in the south west and nationally, business partners and teachers and improve the wider perception of UKRI programmes.