Understanding Civil War from Pre- to Post-War Stages: A Comparative Approach

Civil wars, or wars that take place within state borders, are the dominant form of armed conflict today. Every year civil wars generate numerous deaths from violence, destruction and poverty, displace conflict affected populations, halt sustainable development and contribute to resource exploitation. The human, political, economic and environmental costs of war are severe.

Yet, we still know little about how conflicts turn violent, how civil wars evolve over time and why some recur while others do not. To develop better informed responses to this pressing global problem, this study argues that we need to understand how civil wars unfold across the pre-war, war-time and post-war stages of conflict.

The study departs from traditional analyses of civil war as a phenomenon that is isolated from the broader conflict or follows a separate logic to explore civil war as a process that connects the pre-war, war-time and post-war stages of conflict through evolving interactions between the non-state, state, civilian and external actors. Examining civil war as a process shows that civil wars follow different paths from the pre- to post-war stages that require distinct responses.

For example, wars that start in the context of fragmentation within the regime differ in duration, severity and outcomes from those preceded by long-term social mobilisation. External support can change how these wars develop and prolong the fighting. Efforts to prevent, react and rebuild conflict affected societies should be based on this variation and change.

To understand different paths that civil wars follow, the study undertakes a rigorously designed qualitative analysis of four primary and four secondary cases of civil war. A team of highly qualified researchers engage in coordinated fieldwork to collect and analyse new primary and secondary data on three sets of questions:

Q1. What are the different paths to civil war onset? a. How does conflict turn violent? b. How do non-state groups mobilise and organise before the war? c. What role does the state play in civil war onset? The study explores civil wars that emerge from: i. fragmentation within the regime; ii. social mobilisation that generates violent contention; and

iii. activities of militant political groups. Analysing these paths helps understand where civil wars can start and how they will develop. Q2. How do the different paths to civil war shape the dynamics and outcomes of wars? a. How do the nature of actors and distribution of forces at the war's onset shape the fighting?

b. (How) does the fighting change over time? c. What is the role of regional influence and external support in these changes? The study explores changing internal and external conditions, including: v. introduction of external support; and vi. changes in internal mobilisation and support. Identifying these changes helps understand what factors can protract and intensify the fighting.

Q3. How do the civil war dynamics and outcomes shape the post-war potential for peace? a. Do some war outcomes facilitate post-war peacebuilding more than others? b. What forms of "peace" emerge from the different paths when civil wars end? c. What explains the recurrence of violence after civil wars?

The study explores two types of civil war outcomes: vii. victory; and viii. negotiated settlement.

Identifying the effects of these outcomes on post-war peace helps understand where violence can recur and how to engage local actors to prevent it.

The findings on how the pre-war conflict is related to the civil war's onset, how the onset of war affects its development and how the dynamics and outcomes of war shape the post-war potential for peace will help differentiate between the pre- to post-war stages that require distinct responses and build a robust policy toolkit for international organisations.