Influence, Manipulation and Information Threats as Adversarial Techniques: Events, Evolution and Effects - IMITATE3

The 'Influence, Manipulation, and Information Threats as Adversarial Techniques: Events, Evolution and Effects' (IMITATE3) programme is designed to deliver robust, innovative insights and evidence about how foreign state information operations seek to shape public perceptions and political decision-making. Set against a backdrop of regular dramatic exposés of attempts to use rumours, propaganda, conspiracies and manipulated information to disinform, distort and deceive, it will address a compelling and urgent social problem.

In terms of its operationalization, IMITATE3 is organized around three main task areas each comprising multiple work packages. Task Area 1 will focus on how state-linked information manipulation and interference efforts are constructed and communicated, in terms of the methodologies and techniques deployed by adversaries. Reflecting on the particular moment when this work will be conducted, the team will rapidly mobilize to capture key lessons and insights from the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, and from major democratic events that will occur in 2024.

This will produce contemporary evidence and insights into the state-of-the-art in terms of how state-linked influence efforts are being organized and conducted.

Task Area 2 will investigate the various interventions and counter-measures used to detect, disrupt and degrade hostile information operations and disinformation campaigns. There is not a robust, consolidated evidence-base on what works to manage and mitigate information threats. IMITATE3 will play a key role in addressing this gap in our understanding.

Task Area 3 is where the programme will make a significant contribution to knowledge. Decision-makers require robust and meaningful indicators of impact and effect, to arbitrate between risks and threats warranting a response and those that can be left alone. There is a consensus that a framework like this has been missing from the information threats space.

As such, IMITATE3 will invest effort to devise and test an approach that moves beyond the 'reach' and 'engagement' type metrics, derived from social marketing practice that have dominated to date. Conceptually, this will pivot around and seek to develop the idea of an 'influence footprint' to assess tactical and strategic impacts of a defined hostile operation.

The work on delivering these three task areas will be underpinned by the multi-method and cross-platform collection, analysis and interpretation of digital, qualitative and quantitative data. This will involve extensive social media and internet data, analysed via both 'big data' and 'small data' lenses. Additionally, interviews with professionals and citizens, and a large-scale social survey will be conducted.

The empirical elements of the project will focus on countries selected for their regional diversity, exposure to varying kinds and intensities of foreign state-led information threats, and status as targets of different state adversaries.