Ulster University "NISRA BDR Programme"

This project will form part of the beta testing of the NISRA de-identified Business Data for Research (BDR) database in advance of the data being made available for wider use by approved researchers within the Administrative Data Research Northern Ireland (ADR NI).

The vision for Northern Ireland set out in the "10X Economy" targets an innovation-led growth underpinned by trade and investment (Department for the Economy, 2021a). In our proposed research, we will use the newly available BDR datasets to provide illumination on the trading ecosystem that prevails for Northern Irish businesses. As recognised in the 10X vision, trade is critical to the amplification of benefits emerging from innovatory success and thus, along with the availability of financial capital, is crucial to Northern Irish development.

Indeed, the "10X Economy" has an entire companion document devoted to "Trade and Investment" (Department for the Economy, 2021b), and trade is a central pillar in the 10X research priorities (Department for the Economy, 2021c) - thus underscoring the importance of research in this area.

Research aims

1. Develop a suite of resources to summarise and visualise the trading activity of NI businesses, analysed by sector and location, over the period 2014-2020.

2. Using the NIABI and BESES datasets, undertake statistical investigation to provide policy insights on the determinants of trade flows for NI businesses, including the impact of the Brexit decision.

3. Provide feedback on the usefulness of the NIABI and BESES datasets and, in particular, to identify what is missing to enable the development of a trade model for NI.

4. Assist in the achievement of the 10X Economy vision of a more competitive and hence externally-orientated regional economy. Research objectives/deliverables

1. Undertake a data review and produce summary indicators of the NIABI and BESES variables. This will yield evidence on the useability and distribution of the variables. It will involve: (i) reviewing the useability of the data, (ii) producing summary statistics and (iii) producing visualisations/charts. This is critical to understand the nature of the data and to identify usage issues such as outliers, missing variables and distribution patterns.

2. Produce a multi-period analysis of operating-structure focusing on the variation by sector and geography (with a focus on the 10X priority sectors). This will involve a detailed analysis of the operating structure (as identified through indicators in the NIABI dataset), including organisational form, employment, a selection of accounting-type variables and gross value added.

While we are especially interested in trade, we first need to understand the underlying operating conditions in the local business environment. Crucially, we are able to identify the impact of temporal changes and thus deduce the relevance of impacts such as the Brexit decision.

3. Produce a multi-period analysis of trading volumes and destinations by sector and geography (with a focus on the 10X priority sectors). This will develop sector- and geography-specific analyses of the evolving structure of trade.

By looking across time, we can understand the impact of Brexit on trade redirection/intensification. The distinctions evidenced in the dataset e.g. imports/exports, locations, freight/insurance costs, volumes and goods/services enable us to provide a rich, multi-layered analysis and thus more accurately pinpoint the effects of changing external conditions.

4. Explore the design of a trade model for NI aided by the BESES data. At present, there is a lack of trade modelling for NI separate from the rest of the UK. Given Brexit, and the new position of NI in EU/UK trade, it is vital that modelling is employed specifically for NI. We aim to evaluate the useability of the BESES data for modelling Northern Irish trade.

5. Disseminate our findings according to the funding call - project page, blog, data insight report.