Modelling dengue and chikungunya transmission patterns for improved public health decision-making in the Horn of Africa (AeDST-HORN)

Africa is facing an increasing burden of mosquito-borne arboviral diseases primarily due to climate, land use and demographic changes.

To support evidence-based decision-making in the management of these diseases, the project aims to develop mathematical models for forecasting dengue and chikungunya occurrence patterns in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. Models developed will be used to drive online decision support tools to guide risk- based surveillance and control.

The project also aims to build a network of institutions including the Ethiopia Public Health Institute, Kenya’s Department of Disease Surveillance and Epidemic Response, the Federal Ministry of Health in Somalia, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, the Kenya Medical Research Institute, Ohio State University, Global One Health Initiative and the International Livestock Research Institute that would champion the use of mathematical models for dengue and chikungunya control in the region.

The study will use primary and secondary data on mosquito population and species distribution patterns as well as the infection patterns of the two diseases in humans.

The outcome will be an improved capacity for dengue and chikungunya control within and between the target countries in the Horn of Africa.