Holed-up, but not safe: the impact of climate change on behaviour, populations, and communities of hole nesting birds

Human-induced climate change is profoundly affecting ecological dynamics and biodiversity. While shifting phenology and species interactions have been associated with climate change, the mechanisms underlying these effects are poorly understood. We know little about how individuals adjust to such changes through plasticity in behaviour, or how variation within populations might buffer the impact of change.

To understand the mechanistic effects of climate change on wild populations it is, therefore, important to measure: a) how individual behaviour and performance is influenced by variation in weather and b) how individual-level responses scale up to influence populations and communities.

We will leverage available long-term data from multiple study populations across Europe (using the SPI-Birds database to identify relevant studies), in combination with experimental manipulations, to understand responses to variation in temperature and precipitation in birds (tits and flycatchers). The aims are to understand the impact of human-induced climate change on wild populations of model species, and to estimate how adaptable the species are to further climate change by quantifying the variation in key breeding parameters and behaviours. Our project would focus on three key questions:

1. How much variation exists within and between individual breeding birds for key reproductive behaviours and traits (e.g., brood size, survival), and what are the consequences for population dynamics?

2. To what extent can breeders adjust their reproductive behaviour in response to climate-induced changes in weather, and what are the consequences for individual fitness of breeders and their offspring?

3. Does adjusting to climate change increase competition within or between species, and does that alter the structure of avian communities?

This innovatively holistic approach, combining long-term data and cutting-edge field experiments will broaden our understanding of how climatic shifts due to anthropogenic change are likely to influence bird behaviour and the cascading effects on populations and communities in the UK and beyond.