Mathematical modelling of pancake ice cycles in presence of extreme wave events, winds, and currents

This PhD project aims to model the seasonal cycle of ice pancake formation to better understand climate-regulating processes in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean regions. Pancake ice, formed in wavy environments, plays a crucial role in controlling heat and momentum exchanges between the atmosphere and ocean in the ice-covered Southern Ocean. The project seeks to improve Earth System models by developing a more accurate parametrization of sea ice formation and breakup around Antarctica.

A major goal is to study the evolution of pancake ice floes, including their size distribution and concentration, in response to changing waves, currents, and atmospheric winds, which is critical for enhancing global climate models. Project objectives and timeline:

Year 1: Conduct a literature review (PO1) and develop a 1-dimensional model for pancake floe formation and breakup (PO2). Year 2: Develop a 2-dimensional model (PO3) and apply kinetic models, like Smoluchowski equations (PO4). Year 3: Incorporate water currents and atmospheric winds into the models (PO5).

Year 4: Statistically analyze how extreme events, like extreme waves, affect the seasonal ice pancake cycle (PO6). Supervisory Team and Collaborators: Dr. Davide Proment (Primary supervisor): Expert in nonlinear physics, fluid mechanics, and wave interaction.

Dr. Alberto Alberello (Secondary supervisor): Specialist in wave-sea ice interactions in the Southern Ocean, combining field measurements and modelling.

Prof. Ian Renfrew (Tertiary supervisor): Focuses on weather forecasting and climate prediction, with expertise in surface exchange over sea ice.

Collaborators include Dr. Fabien Montiel (University of Otago, New Zealand) for mathematical modelling of ice merging and fragmentation, and Prof. Marcello Vichi (University of Cape Town, South Africa) for field data used in calibration/validation. Regular online meetings and potential international visits are planned with collaborators.

Project alignment with NERC remit: This interdisciplinary project involves mathematical modelling, numerical simulations, and climate physics, fitting within NERC's strategic priorities in atmospheric physics, climate change, geosciences, and marine environments.