A traits-based approach to predicting and mitigating the impacts of a devastating amphibian pathogen under climate change

Globalisation and climate change drive pathogen emergences that threaten global biodiversity. Pathogens exhibit variation in their ability to infect, replicate, and transmit, but we don't understand how these key traits will alter transmission dynamics under future climate change. The chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has gained a global distribution and is responsible for the declines of >500 amphibian species worldwide.

We know there is considerable variation between Bd strains in their trait responses to temperature, which will drive different responses to climate change, and we have begun to explore how different Bd lineages occupy different climate envelopes.

This studentship will develop mechanistic mathematical models, informed by lab and field data, to predict how future climatic scenarios may act on these traits to shape Bd emergence and impact. The focus of the project is Southern Africa where, with our Project Partners (Anura Africa, North West University, SANBI, Endangered Wildlife Trust and Synchronicity Earth), the student will help to set disease management priorities for Southern African amphibian biodiversity.

Objectives are to: 1. Collect isolates in South Africa and use these to quantify Bd thermal trait responses in vitro; 2. Use these data to develop models to understand how temperature-dependent traits drive Bd emergence and transmission; 3. Combine these models with climate-prediction scenarios to predict future hotspots of high Bd risk;

4. Work with in-country partners to combine outputs with their amphibian climate modelling outputs to identify amphibian species at high future risk, and develop strategies to mitigate future Bd impact.