Predicting and mitigating impacts of environmental change; evaluating barriers to zoonotic pathogen spillover

Threats from tick-borne diseases are rapidly increasing globally due to environmental change, with severe impacts on human and animal health. The aim of this research project is to identify the drivers of tick-borne disease emergence in a Lyme disease hotspot using substantial existing tick, host and other ecological data and evaluate a novel set of interventions.

Objectives:

Synthesis of the evidence base for interventions to reduce Lyme disease risk from the published literature, and assessment of suitability in the local social and ecological context. Collection of field data to assess the effect of one or more interventions to reduce tick-borne disease hazard Mechanistic modelling to understand the drivers of disease emergence, variation in risk and impact of interventions

Development of management recommendations to reduce tick bite exposure of people and animals. Novelty and Timeliness

Pathogens transmitted by ticks and maintained by animal hosts cause severe disease in humans worldwide and evidence for interventions to limit spread of these diseases to humans are currently limited. Knowledge gaps to design multi-level interventions to reduce spill-over are; 1) quantifying the underlying ecological processes and 2) development and monitoring of the long-term effects of interventions which are acceptable to stakeholders across all sectors.

In this project, mechanistic models will be used to understand the role of climate change, altered habitat management and host density, and pathogen introduction in driving disease emergence and spatial variation in current risk. An adaptive management approach (Viana et al 2014) will be pioneered with stakeholders where empirical data collected following interventions will be used to enrich the evidence base for interventions and enhance understanding of disease dynamics.

This research will be used to inform policy and approaches needed to reduce human tick-borne disease burden.