Metacommunity dynamics, land-use strategies, and ecosystem services

Natural ecosystems are increasingly fragmented, with remaining patches separated by farmland, urban areas, roads, and other anthropogenic land uses. These changes have profound consequences for biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human wellbeing. Empirical research on land-use strategies-ways of dividing up land between natural and anthropogenic uses-suggests that conserving large patches of natural habitats will reduce the impact of land-use change (e.g.

Balmford 2021 J Zoology), but has largely neglected the importance of spatial population dynamics. In contrast, spatially explicit modelling (e.g. Hanski & Ovaskainen 2003 Theoretical Population Biology) has not incorporated the need for productive landscapes to maintain a certain level of (e.g. food) production.

This project will combine these two approaches - models of land-use strategies and metapopulation/metacommunity approaches to investigate how we can best use land to balance the needs of humans and nature.

This project aims to understand how and when the inclusion of spatial dynamics alters conclusions about which land-use strategies best balance the needs of people and wild biodiversity. It will;

1. Adapt existing metapopulation and metacommunity models to account for the need for landscapes to support a certain level of human activity. For example, urban landscapes will be a mix of housing and green spaces such as gardens and parks. Increasing the area of large parks to benefit people and nature will mean that more people need to be housed in the remaining land, resulting in higher density housing and fewer small green spaces such as gardens (Fig 1).

2. Parameterise these models using existing data on species responses to land-use change (e.g. Williams et al. 2017 Global Change Biology).

3.Explore the non-equilibrium spatial dynamics of metacommunities over time in the face of landscape changes, taking account of the long lag-times in extinction debt and colonisation credits (e.g. Halley et al. 2016 Nature Comms). Impact

This project will provide a rigorous theoretical and empirical understanding of how land-use strategies affect metacommunity dynamics and ecosystem services and disservices. This has important implications for both conservation and agricultural policies by identifying which land-use strategies and agricultural systems are most likely to maximise biodiversity persistence and human wellbeing in agroecosystems.