Characterizing the impacts of past and future severe wildfires on global biodiversity and ecosystem services

Global forests face a diverse array of pressures, including deforestation and climate change that threaten their structural integrity, constituent biodiversity, and carbon stocks. Severe wildfires represent a powerful force that can rapidly decimate established forests. Whilst fires are a natural component of ecosystems, the recent increase in scale, frequency, and intensity of wildfires means that they now represent a major driver of forest loss in boreal, temperate, and tropical ecosystems.

In the face of rapid and uncertain climatic changes, severe wildfires are likely to continue to threaten the biodiversity, carbon stocks, and ecosystem services (including timber) associated with global forests. My PhD will assess the impact of historic and future wildfires on forest-dependent biodiversity and quantify the economic, biodiversity, and carbon conflicts associated with a changing global timber production profile, as we look to meet global timber demand in a wildfire future.

To do so, I will first build a database of area of habitat maps for fire-impacted, forest-dependent vertebrate species and overlay these ranges with spatial data of stand-clearing forest fires recorded between 2001-2023, to quantify losses in areas of suitable habitat associated with forest fires. I will then use earth system modelling to predict the extent of future severe wildfires and associated timber losses under different climate pathways (and management pathways) to assess the potential shortfall in future timber supply driven by wildfires.

Integrating my workflow and model outputs from chapters 1 and 2 respectively, whilst also adjusting for future climatic shifts, to estimate the impact of future wildfires on biodiversity later this century. Finally, I plan to assess the economic, biodiversity, and carbon trade-offs of different scenarios of timber expansion to account for the fire-induced shortfall in timber supply.

Questions of interest 1. How have wildfires impacted forest-dependent species?

What percentage of forest-dependent species' area of habitat has been lost to severe wildfires between 2001-2023? How has the relative percentage area of habitat burn changed over time?

What functional traits predict forest-dependent species being threatened by fire? How were the ranges of forest-dependent species that exhibit functional traits associated with poor fire resilience impacted? 2. To what extent will future severe wildfires undermine global timber supply? What is the expected range of projected future forest fires and what is the associated loss of timber yield?

How do these values vary under different climate scenarios? To what extent do different fire and forest management strategies impact the extent of projected future fires? 3. How will forest-dependent species be impacted by future wildfire scenarios? What percentage of forest-dependent species' habitat will be threatened by future severe wildfires?

Do hotspots of species with functional trait values susceptible to wildfire overlap with regions of high future megafire threat? 4. Can we reconcile economic value, biodiversity, and carbon stocks to meet future timber demand?

What is the extent of "win-win" regions where timber production can be expanded with minimal cost to biodiversity? What is the biodiversity and carbon cost associated with timber expansion in economically feasible regions?

How do the associated costs of timber production expansion vary between key timber crops and different demand scenarios?