The Role of Covert Action and Disinformation in the Collapse of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces

This research explores the complex dynamics of Covert Actions and their impact on the collapse of the Afghanistan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF). Afghanistan, a mountainous buffer zone between the East and the West, has long been a target for international and regional conflicts, as well as subversion and covert action. Most famously, the CIA led efforts to hinder the USSR in the 1980s; however, in a turn of events, after the United States invaded Afghanistan in 2001 to overthrow the Taliban and destroy Al Qaeda bases following the 9/11 attacks, regional countries resorted to Covert Action to push for the final withdrawal of the United States and its Western allies in 2021.

The collapse of ANDSF in 2021 marked a significant turning point in Afghanistan's tumultuous history, raising critical questions about the underlying factors that led to this sudden downfall. ANDSF, comprised of the Afghan National Army (ANA), the Afghan National Police (ANP), the National Directorate of Security (NDS), and other security agencies, have been of the utmost prominence to Afghanistan's defence and internal security.

ANDSF assumed full responsibility for security in 2015 after the departure of foreign combat forces. This transition marked a significant change since the security forces were required to operate in a challenging environment characterized by chronic insurgency, political instability, and changing degrees of assistance and intervention from outside. The quick and unexpected demise of the ANDSF in 2021 was shocking when considering the significant amount of assets that had been invested in its establishment.

ANDSF collapse was influenced by several variables: leadership, corruption, problems with morale and supplies, and the resiliency and strategic operations of the Taliban. Nevertheless, beyond these obvious causes. This thesis addresses the extent to which more covert and subtle aspects played a crucial part in weakening the ANDSF and in exploiting and amplifying these orthodox factors.

External actors have critically shaped the strategies and capabilities of insurgent groups in Afghanistan. Support in training, expertise, and resources has enhanced the combat effectiveness of groups like the Tehrik Taliban Afghanistan, affecting the morale and operational capabilities of the ANDSF. Regional countries, notably Pakistan, are accused of having offered sanctuaries on their soil and channelled aid to the Taliban from the early years of the Taliban government's collapse in 2001.

Simultaneously, Pakistan has been engaged in a shadow war with India in Afghanistan. The latter is accused of employing rogue elements in the Afghan security apparatus to instigate instability in Pakistan. Moreover, the emergence of ISKP in 2015 further complicated the security and political situation, drawing more nation-states to support the Taliban.

ISKP's emergence significantly altered the dynamics of the conflict, thereby escalating it. This development pushed more regional countries to consider the United States and its allies responsible for the region's destabilization. Among these countries, Iran increased the provision of lethal weapons and the hosting of a Taliban Shura in Mashhad.

Long before, Iran provided insurgents with support to sabotage the construction of the Salma dam and other water management infrastructure on which the Eastern flank of Iran depended on the inflow of water from Afghanistan. Similarly, in 2021, reports emerged that Russia approved a secret project that paid bounties to Tehrik Taliban Afghanistan for killing American soldiers.

This thesis explores how covert action as a statecraft strategy has moulded insurgency and counterinsurgency efforts. It examines the interplay between overt and covert activity and between external and internal activity; it deconstructs how we conceptualize and measure impact; and, in doing so, it decenters the literature away from the orthodox prism of CIA activities.