Using a robust decision making (RDM) approach to inform robust and financeable plans for achieving Paris Agreement and national development objectives

LMICs must formulate LTSs and investment plans to ensure their net-zero pledges materialise, but integrating diverse actor views in policymaking processes is challenging, and evidence-making traditionally rely on deterministic analysis carried out using assumptions of varying reliability. This leads to plans which are vulnerable to unforeseen circumstances and unable to adapt.

To tackle this, the use of RDM is proposed to inform robust, flexible plans. To better understand the role of RDM in this context, three research questions are put forward:

A. How does an RDM approach change the practice of decision-making support for energy policymaking? This includes both differences in analytical insight that may emerge but also changes based on the shift to a more participatory-based approach.

B. What innovations to the RDM approach, or complementary approaches, are needed to increase applicability in an LMIC context? Based on A., this focuses on innovations to the method, or use of complementary approaches given the limited applicability of RDM to LMIC energy planning.

C. How can RDM enhance collaborative decision making across a diverse stakeholder group, given the cross-sectoral focus of energy policymaking? To date, siloed culture across ministries and the large number of actors involved in energy policymaking is a key challenge in formulation of good-enough LTSs.

This research aims to benefit policymakers and stakeholders in LMICs, who face the challenge of rapidly formulating credible plans to finance and implement their climate pledges while supporting resilient development. To these ends, the research will provide insights into the role of RDM in tackling challenges in policymaking and formulating robust and adaptable policies.

A set of open-source methods for analysts will be disseminated via CCG's capacity building work in LMICs. As the research will be applied to existing policy process, it also aims to contribute directly to energy policymaking in the case study country. Finally, the research may benefit the DMDU community by highlighting innovations needed.