Computational models for space sustainability

Spacecraft systems are critical for our modern way of life, underpin the UN Sustainable Development Goals, and support £360 billion of UK GDP. The UK aims to "build one of the most innovative and attractive space economies in the world", where space data and technologies can be further integrated into our society [1]. This is only achievable if the risks to satellites posed by space debris can be managed and a sustainable space environment can be attained.

However, in even the most optimistic scenarios for future space activity and behaviour, the debris population is predicted to grow unless global mitigation and remediation actions improve.

A number of initiatives for quantifying the sustainability of space activities and the so-called "carrying capacity" of Earth orbital regions have emerged in the last few years. Most are still nascent but even in the near-term they are likely to disrupt how space activity is regulated. In the long-term, they may support the design and operation of space missions "compatible with sustainable and responsible operations." [2].

This PhD project aims to develop computer models to enable (1) an awareness of the current environmental status, (2) an understanding of how the space debris population will grow, and (3) an understanding of the potential impacts on the use of space. A more philosophical challenge lies in the need to address (2) and (3) across deep time - potentially multimillennial timescales - as this demands new thinking and possibly substantial technical innovation if reliable and meaningful assessments of space sustainability are to be made.

[1] National Space Strategy, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-space-strategy

[2] Rathnasabapathy, M. et al. (2020). Space Sustainability Rating: Designing a Composite Indicator to Incentivise Satellite Operators to Pursue Long-Term Sustainability of the Space Environment. Proc. 71st Int. Astronautical. Congress CyberSpace Edition. IAC-20-E9.1-A6.8.6.