Development of an operational solar wind model based on novel inner boundary conditions

This project aims to develop and assess a comprehensive, fully-automated, space weather forecasting capability for the coming decade.

We will develop a highly-efficient forecasting model for ambient solar wind and coronal mass ejections (CME), based on novel boundary conditions near the Sun.

The model will forecast solar wind/CME speeds and densities throughout the inner solar system, at a fraction of the computational cost of even the most efficient current operational models. Another novel aspect is the use of boundary conditions gained from coronagraph image observations near the Sun.

The ambient solar wind boundary is driven by tomographical maps of the coronal density (see https://solarphysics.aber.ac.uk/Archives/tomography/), building on the CorTom module of the operational SWEEP package (SWIMMR S4 project), and recent published work by Kaine Bunting & Huw Morgan.

The CMEs are injected into the model based on the results of the ACME-3D software, recently developed in Aberystwyth (see https://solarphysics.aber.ac.uk/Archives/cme_realtime/, publication pending). A comprehensive assessment of the system's performance will be made on a large set of historical data.