Characterising energy demand profiles for future low-carbon homes

The UK is currently faced with extremely challenging targets for decarbonising our homes, with a particular emphasis on forms of low-carbon heating. For both new build and retrofits of existing buildings, the scale of required change is unprecedented.

At the same time, the UK is seeing significant change in the carbon intensity of our national energy systems; particularly the National Grid, where carbon intensity has reduced by approximately 50% in just over a decade. This has, largely, been achieved through an increase in renewables. This picture therefore provides an interesting dilemma for a researcher: how can a robust pathway be proposed that accommodates changes to both demand-side (particularly heating) technologies and supply-side technologies that allows for a robust, low-carbon future to be assured.

This project will approach this problem by bringing Energy Performance Certificates data with empirical energy data to create typical demand profile templates for different housing categories. The project will also attempt to address diversity of use, thermal inertia, and heating/storage technologies, so that demand flexibility opportunities available from the identified demand profile categories will be ascertained.

In doing so, a methodology will be presented that can address many of the problems associated with a rapid transition of heating technologies (particularly, though not solely, electrification of heat) as we journey on a path towards low and zero carbon heating in UK homes.