Probabilistic assessment of structural integrity of composite components in offshore wind energy

Studies show that a significant number of offshore wind turbine generators (WTGs) will reach the end of their type certified design life before 2030 (Adedipe and Shafiee 2021) and with the push in recent years to increase the installed capacity of offshore wind energy to meet Net-Zero targets and improve energy

security, EoL decisions will become increasingly important. As demonstrated by the Middelgrunden and HR1 OWFs, the industry is likely to see a shift towards extending the operational life of existing assets as opposed to straight decommissioning (Gokhale 2021). Furthermore, the low energy prices at the start of

2020, as a result of the pandemic, have meant that older plants are considering lifetime extension as a method of recuperating losses through extended operation (Randall-Smith 2020). An alternative method of assessing WTG component structural integrity could be to apply a probabilistic approach. Probabilistic structural integrity analyses, often referred to as structural reliability analysis,

account for the probability distributions of the input load and resistance properties to give the failure frequency of a component. Probabilistic models incorporate randomness and unlike deterministic methods, which can demonstrate that failure is not credible, probabilistic methods can demonstrate that the risk of

failure is less than a specified acceptable value, often referred to as the target reliability. The target reliability is the allowable probability of failure in a given time for a particular a component under a specific failure mode.