Collaborative Research: RAPID: Elections During Crises: The Effects of Hurricane Helene on Election Administration and Perceptions of Integrity in North Carolina

Hurricane Helene, striking the southern United States in late September 2024, caused catastrophic damage to western North Carolina. The damage to infrastructure (electricity, water, cell service, roads), displacement of residents, and the prioritization of basic needs for relief efforts may directly affect citizen participation in the voting process.

Ensuring voter access, security, and an efficient process requires a robust response by government officials and non-governmental organizations. Failures to provide these services—or the belief that essential services are lacking—could undermine perceptions that the election results are fair and valid. Consequently, developing an understanding of the administrative responses to a disaster, as well as public perceptions during an election period, is critical.

Because North Carolina is a key battleground state in the U.S. presidential election, the impact of the storm raises critical research questions: (1) how will the disaster affect the state's capacity to implement elections and (2) how will the state's responses influence public perceptions of election integrity? These questions are important as the state's ability to quickly address logistical challenges could impact voter turnout and confidence in the election outcome.

To analyze Helene's impact on election administration, this research project will collect and analyze four kinds of data: post-election survey data from residents of the state; exit poll data from voters at early voting sites and election day polling places; interviews with state and local election officials; and administrative data on the location of polling places, changes due to the disaster, and official election results. By analyzing these data, the research will evaluate how logistical challenges influence administrative responses, voter behavior, and perceptions of integrity.

The project will contribute to the development of knowledge in several areas of social science research. It will enhance the understanding of voter behavior, election administration, disaster management, and the implications of crises on policy implementation.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.