Doctoral Dissertation Research in DRMS: Harnessing a Measure of Strategic Anticipation to Promote Theoretical and Applied Advances Across Social Science Disciplines

This project develops and tests a new tool that measures how much a person thinks about what they should do based on what they expect other people to do. This is an important topic to study because people may behave differently depending on expectations and such thinking can affect important outcomes like pricing. For example, when buying a house Person A may think a price should be based on its current value, but Person B might expect that other buyers will be optimistic about future growth.

Thus, Person B may pay more now, thinking they can sell at a higher price later. When many people think like Person B, this can drive up home values beyond their actual worth creating a housing bubble. Another example is salary expectations.

When starting a new job Person A might just ask for what they think is a fair salary, but Person B may expect their employer to give a low counter offer after a salary request, and thus ask for more up front, ending up better off. These different strategies can lead to unfair differences in pay. Many economists have shown this to be the case but there is a lack of research on understanding characteristics of people who engage in greater thinking about others’ behaviors.

This project develops a tool to measure strategic anticipation assessing how much strategy a person uses in how they anticipate, or expect, other people to do in response to their own behavior. If scientists can measure people's strategic anticipation, they can design experiments to test how much it matters in many different settings, such as buying houses and negotiating with other people to get the best salaries.

A better understanding of these processes can help people to make better decisions and get fairer outcomes.

This project develops and validates a novel measure of strategic anticipation - the ability to engage in recursive thinking about others' mental states and potential actions. Drawing from economic theories of level-k reasoning and psychological research on theory of mind, the Strategic Anticipation Measure (SAM) provides researchers with a standardized tool to assess individual differences in strategic iterative thinking.

The research involves replicating and validating the SAM in a nationally representative sample, ensuring psychometric rigor through measures of discriminant validity and test-retest reliability. Additionally, the project applies the SAM across various social contexts—including voluntary disclosure in test-optional college admissions, self-sacrifice in close relationships, strategic decision-making in resource competition, and responses to shared knowledge in bystander intervention.

By establishing the SAM as a reliable measure, the project aims to open new avenues for theoretical and empirical research, advancing our understanding of strategic anticipation in multiple domains of human behavior.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.