RAISE: Urban Snow Modeling to Advance Resilience for Today and Tomorrow

This project will examine the many impacts of heavy snow loads in Anchorage, Alaska, explore how people perceive and mitigate risk, improve prediction models, and provide management strategies to improve community planning and to prevent building collapse. New approaches in urban management and community planning are needed to protect life and infrastructure in areas burdened by increased amounts of heavy snow and rain on snow.

In Anchorage, rapidly changing snow characteristics in recent years has led to severe property and infrastructure damage. In 2023 and 2024, 24 buildings collapsed under the weight of snow, resulting in one fatality. Most snow monitoring stations are located in nearby mountains and not in urban-population centers.

Warnings to clear snow from urban homes and businesses are based on data from these stations despite them being located outside the city. This can lead to difficulties issuing public safety warnings as data may not align with local conditions. Evidence-based information will inform businesses and residents on when and how to safely remove snow.

Educational efforts will advance STEM knowledge, ensuring awareness of snow science and load-hazard management. Project outcomes will provide management strategies to improve community planning and prevent building collapse. The findings can be applied to other Alaskan urban areas, such as Fairbanks and Juneau, as well as to other geographical areas facing similar challenges.

The researchers will work with community partners in Anchorage, Alaska, to improve snow- modeling capabilities using an enhanced version of the atmosphere-urban-land-surface model WRF-Urban. The team will better quantify the link between ground-based observations of snowpack properties and snow loads on municipal Anchorage rooftops. This will help create a more sophisticated snow-characteristic model that will improve management and mitigation strategies by improving urban hazard warnings.

This project will help build the STEM workforce by engaging high school students to measure the properties of snowpacks related to rooftop snow loads. During the course of this project the research team will develop partnerships to bring this approach to other areas affected by similar events and risks to improve heavy snow hazard mitigation across the country.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.