NSF-SNSF: Variability of Andean Hydroclimate Extremes - their Precursors, Predictability and Interactions with Large-Scale Dynamics

Weather extremes such as drought, heavy summer rains, extreme snowfall and frost, have long plagued the central Andes region and affected local activities such as agriculture, but they also lead to loss of human life. The frequency and severity of such events is expected to change in a future climate but little is known about the causes of extreme events in this region, hence their predictability has historically been poor.

Adequate planning and adaptation, however, requires successfully forecasting and predicting such events, but the development of such forecasting tools is still in its infancy. The goal of this project is thus to contribute to a better understanding and modeling of these events, thereby improving the prediction of their impacts for hydrological and agricultural systems.

This will also result in better communication of the associated risks to society, thereby improving the overall preparedness.

This project will employ a crop model that can simulate the effects of these processes on yields and simulate different management options. This model will be fed with output from high resolution regional climate model simulations to support decision-making by local farmers, but also aid policy- and decision-makers. The project will be developed in collaborative fashion between institutions in the United States, Switzerland and Bolivia, combining expertise in modeling and Andean climate variability with partner’s strengths in data set production, geospatial analyses and crop yield modeling.

Hence this research depends on the international collaboration between researchers, as inter-dependencies related to data and expertise exist. All groups will contribute unique datasets and expertise to address this scientific challenge through an entirely integrated scientific collaboration. This project will also contribute to training of a US-based graduate student by involving them in all aspects of the project. The student will be exposed to interdisciplinary research in an international setting.

The focus of this project is on extreme event analysis and impacts on crop yields in the Central Andes, but the impacts of extreme events on agriculture are equally felt in parts of the United States. Hence, while our approach here focuses on one specific vulnerable mountain region, our results will yield new insight into high-resolution modeling of extreme events that are also relevant for and applicable to other mountain areas, such as the Rocky Mountains in the United States.

The crop modeling under future climate change scenarios is also relevant on a much broader scale, as many crops have limited heat and drought tolerances that may also affect future crop yields in the United States.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.