NSF-NFRF: Climate Adaptation and Resilience Strategies (CLARS): Socio-Economic Vulnerabilities among Urban Migrants in the Lake Victoria Basin and Great Lakes Region

The projected impacts of climate change on human mobility are staggering, with estimates suggesting that anywhere from 200 million people by 2050 to 2 billion people by 2100 will be on the move due to environmental changes across the globe. Research on climate migration has traditionally focused on the factors that attract or force individuals to relocate such as better opportunities for education and jobs and the impact of violence and poverty.

One particularly understudied aspect of climate-driven migration is how the influx of people might affect communities in receiving cities already at-risk due to climate change impacts. The Climate Adaptation and Resilience Strategies (CLARS) project aims to address this through a community engagement, urban models and decision support tools that involves stakeholders from diverse sectors in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) in Africa and the Great Lakes Region (GLR) in North America.

CLARS will test and refine adaptive strategies that build resilience among both migrants and host communities in urban settings across these areas.

The project’s approach to tackle these challenges is using advanced tools like the Participatory Public Geographical Information System (PPGIS) to encourage a wide range of community members to: 1) express their preferences about, for example, where to promote new housing developments and where to place green infrastructure given the potential of more severe flooding in the future, and 2) how to communicate these preferences to city officials. This effort not only aims to reflect the real needs and aspirations of the communities involved but also to facilitate dialogue amongst local stakeholders to better understand the impacts of migration on their environments and economies.

By comparing across several cities in the GLR and the LVB, the project will offer insights into how these tools can be scaled and adapted elsewhere, potentially transforming how cities worldwide approach the complexities of climate-driven migration and fostering more resilient and inclusive communities. This initiative will also facilitate the communication among cities of best practices to prepare, respond and adapt to climate migrants.

This recognizes that the experiences of cities in the LVB are incredibly valuable for those in the GLR, which may soon face similar challenges due to climate migration. Simultaneously, this project will facilitate the sharing of strategies and insights from the Great Lakes cities, which have valuable experience in planning for and anticipating the complexities of these migration challenges.

This is a project jointly funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation and funding agencies from Canada, Germany, and the United Kingdom via the 2023 International Joint Initiative for Research on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Competition. This Competition allowed a single joint international proposal to be submitted and peer-reviewed by Canada.

Upon successful joint determination of an award recommendation, each agency funds the proportion of the budget that supports scientists at institutions in their respective countries.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.