DISES-EX: Climate resilience and risk aversion within the integrated dynamics of a hydro-agricultural system

Climate change affects agriculture and water resources. Agriculture relies heavily on water, and different crops and farming practices require varying amounts of water at specific times. Droughts can severely limit water availability for agriculture, affecting crop yields and food production.

This project will inform optimization of water use efficiency in farming, ensuring sustainable agricultural practices despite changing climate conditions to ensure society can predict and prepare for future challenges in food production. The project will explore how farmers' decisions and risk preferences influence their water use strategies during droughts.

Integration of economics, hydrology, and social sciences allows for a holistic view of how human behavior (such as risk aversion) interacts with environmental factors (like water availability). Such a holistic approach is crucial for developing effective policies and strategies that balance economic needs with environmental sustainability. The findings will inform policy makers and water resource managers on better ways to allocate and manage water resources as global demand for food increases and climate change continues to impact water availability worldwide.

The project will also promote education and training opportunities for students, including those from non-traditional backgrounds. The project’s educational approach emphasizes inclusivity and engages stakeholders beyond academia, ensuring that the research has real-world applications and benefits for society at large. By understanding the complex interactions between human decisions and environmental factors, the project explores pathways towards more resilient and efficient water use practices, benefiting both current and future generations.

The impacts of climate change on agriculture and hydrological resources within a primarily groundwater-fed system will be analyzed quantitatively. Agricultural water usage, characterized by diverse cropping systems, exhibits varying water values, demand timing, and consumptive efficiencies. Hydro-climatic anomalies, such as droughts, pose significant constraints on water availability for agriculture, influenced by farmers' irrigation practices, regulatory frameworks, and risk attitudes towards production.

The goal of this project is to investigate the role of risk preferences within hydro-agricultural systems and the resulting feedback mechanisms under drought conditions. Specifically, the project will contrast outcomes between risk-neutral and risk-averse agricultural operators through empirical surveys measuring risk preferences and irrigation decision-making.

The results will be used to assess how different levels of risk aversion influence system dynamics, especially in response to drought intensity, and how these dynamics vary across spatial scales and different hydrological configurations (e.g., conjunctive reservoir-groundwater systems). The methodology involves developing a modeling framework that integrates economic, hydrological, and social components.

The framework links basin-level hydrological models with empirical data on water management decisions and risk preferences of farmers. Additionally, a crop-specific resource allocation model will be incorporated to capture the intersection of socio-environmental interactions. Data constraints from the Lower Mississippi River Basin inform and validate the model, ensuring its applicability to groundwater-dominated and conjunctive surface-groundwater systems.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.