DISES-EX Rainbows on the Horizon: Understanding the Dynamics of Integrated Climate, River, Trout, Tourism, and Policy Systems in the Mountain West

This project examines the the socio-ecological system of climate, hydrology, fisheries ecology and evolution, and the linked human systems of outdoor recreation, tourism livelihoods, wild-caught local food, and policy-making. The goal is to understand how trout fisheries in the American Mountain West region are impacted by rapidly changing climate and how stakeholders and managers are reacting to these changes to better protect mountain trout fisheries and the bio-economy that depends upon them.

Trout are a flagship species, one of the most popular game fish in the United States. Trout have immense value to tourism and livelihoods in rural communities. They are also expected to be the species most heavily impacted species by climate change in mountain ecosystems.

This project will also generate lesson plans for an annual event with over 150 traditionally underrepresented K-12 students aimed at increasing inclusion in natural resource conservation. A Project Advisory Committee will ensure results are translated to end-users through a white paper, blogs, and relationship building.

The study sites in Wyoming and Colorado include some of the most productive trout fisheries in the U.S. The project will use the Community Earth System 2 Large Ensemble Model to downscale hydro-climate data to run hydrological and ecosystem models at fisheries management-relevant scales. The ecosystem model outputs biodiversity metrics for the four species of trout characteristic of the case sites: native cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii), introduced and stocked rainbow trout (Onocorhynchus mykiss), brown trout (Salmo trutta), and brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis).

These changes will then inform a large-scale social science survey of public recreationalists residing in Colorado and Wyoming and tourism companies/workers. A survey of several thousand people will ask whether changes to biodiversity will impact people’s willingness to fish and how changes to local fish may impact overall satisfaction with outdoor experiences and sourcing trout for food.

Perceptions contained in the survey will then feed into interview questions to engage decision-maker stakeholders at the federal, state, local, and tribal governments as well as NGOs and outfitting companies about how changes to climate, biodiversity, and public preferences on outdoor recreation can be met with changes to public policy and collaborative management.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.