NSF-JST: An Inclusive Human-Centered Risk Management Modeling Framework for Flood Resilience

Modern flood risk is influenced by the way nature works (such as how rainfall becomes streamflow) and how people organize things (such as how properties are protected). To comprehensively study flood risk, one must focus on specific spatial scales, acknowledge variations within those areas, and evaluate the lasting impacts of floods on society. This project, jointly supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) in the US and the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), brings a team of scientists together to perform research that will develop a novel computer modeling approach that helps us understand and manage flood risk better.

This approach is designed to create a modeling system that considers the natural conditions of the study area, people's perceptions and experiences related to floods, and factors such as governmental policies on buyouts and insurance. Most importantly, the research explicitly considers the differential impact of floods on vulnerable groups, including low-income, minority, disabled, and elderly individuals.

The project is structured around three research tasks. The first focuses on establishing a comprehensive US-Japan flood risk data inventory, concentrating on existing and missing data related to marginalized groups. The work serves as a foundation for future collaborative flood research between the two countries.

The second research task involves the development of a two-way coupled, multi-scale, agent-based flood risk catastrophe model that considers both marginalized and non-marginalized groups. This international collaboration ensures the incorporation of diverse cultural and societal factors from Japan and the US. The third research task centers on analyzing flood risks and resilience by jointly creating climate change and socioeconomic scenarios with an inter-country project advisory board.

This project forms a meaningful trans-Pacific partnership for the next generation of flood modeling and advances the four priority areas of the Sendai Framework: 1) understanding disaster risk; 2) strengthening disaster risk governance; 3) investing in disaster risk resilience; and 4) enhancing disaster preparedness.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.