Measuring the impact of past, present and future environmental changes on schistosomiasis transmission in southern Malawi

Schistosomiasis, a trematode infectious disease, is highly endemic in Malawi.

Approximately 40-50% of the population are at risk of being infected with urinary and intestinal schistosomiasis, with transmission being dependent on humans encountering an intermediate freshwater snail host. As such, the spatial pattern in disease risk is strongly influenced by the natural environment.

The overarching goal of this project is to combine remotely sensed and georeferenced snail survey data to quantify the relationship between the snail host and the environment, and to understand the impact of environmental changes such as land-use and climate change on transmission risk.

Focusing on the highly endemic region of Southern Malawi, I will use geospatial statistical methods and publicly available satellite imagery to generate habitat suitability maps over a 30-year period (1990-2020) to visualize the changing patterns in transmission risk over time. Data on various climate change scenarios will be used to predict future changes in snail habitat for the region.

I will undertake snail surveys and drone image capture to generate snail habitat suitability maps which complement the ongoing epidemiological surveys.

Outputs generated will provide valuable insight into the spatial patterns in schistosomiasis risk, and mitigating future risk caused by environmental and climatic changes.