CIVIC-PG Track A: Codeveloping local flood thresholds and high tide flooding predictions with community science and innovative technology

Sea level rise is increasing the frequency of high tide flooding along the 3,500 miles of tidally influenced shoreline in Maine, and coastal communities face an urgent need to adapt. Near and long-term high tide flooding projections that combine reliable tide predictions and local observations that tie water levels to specific flood impacts (“flood thresholds”) serve as a technical foundation for community adaptation to increasing flood risk.

However, sparse tide gauge coverage, unreliable tide predictions, and a lack of observation-based flood thresholds all pose significant barriers to flood adaptation planning in Maine. The Gulf of Maine Research Institute, in collaboration with US Harbors, will lead a team of civic, community, and industry partners in building social and technological infrastructure for establishing flood thresholds and improving tide predictions in three coastal Maine communities: Portland, St.

George, and Boothbay. The low-cost processes piloted in this project will inform replicable practices in analogously complex coastlines with limited NOAA tide gauge data. Within Maine, localized, co-developed flood hazard and vulnerability information produced by this project will provide data and engagement foundational to climate adaptation planning questions faced by a broad array of stakeholders.

The state’s economy relies on access to coastal infrastructure—and as the most rural state in the U.S.—Maine coastal communities face unique adaptation challenges due to their remoteness, isolation from central planning agencies, limited resources, and poverty. Consequently, this project fills a critical need for enabling more effective flood adaptation in coastal communities in Maine—and beyond.

The approach in this research project involves installing community-owned, low-cost tide gauges using emerging water level measurement technologies. Civic and community partners will identify priority areas for installing the gauges. Collaborating university scientists will conduct use-case scenarios to evaluate the efficacy of the water level data products (e.g., tide predictions and emergency alerts) in meeting community needs.

Researchers will also build community science and education programs in each community for collecting geo- and time-referenced photographic flood impact data that can be tied to water level measurements and LiDAR for the development of local flood thresholds. Finally, water level data will be used to periodically calculate harmonic constituents, generate improved local tide predictions, and estimate tidal datums.

In the project’s follow-on Stage 2 submission of which this Stage 1 work prepares the project ready for quick initiation and implementation, the team will leverage the scalable methodology and civic and community partnerships built in Stage 1 to expand to 20 communities and adapt existing statistical methodologies for developing high tide flooding projections for integration into community planning activities.

This project is in response to the Civic Innovation Challenge program—Track A. Living in a changing climate: pre-disaster action around adaptation, resilience, and mitigation—and is a collaboration between NSF, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of Energy.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.