RAPID: 2018 Hurricane Season -- Assessing the Role of Antecedent Land State on Hurricane Post-landfall Rainfall

Hurricane Florence dropped an extraordinary amount of rainfall on parts of the eastern United States, particularly in coastal North Carolina. It has been theorized that wet land conditions can provide a moisture feedback that sustains landfalling hurricanes and tropical storms. The research team will collect data and perform analyses to determine whether this mechanism played a role in the progression of Florence and how it may impact other tropical systems.

The end goal of the research is to improve the forecasts of landfalling hurricanes and the various hazards they pose. The project will also help to train the next generation of scientists.

This rapid-response award will seek to determine the role of land-surface change during a tropical cyclone landfall on resultant rainfall characteristics. Hurricane Florence will serve as a case study to address the so-called "Brown Ocean Effect" where wet land provides moisture feedback to sustain landfalling tropical systems. In this project, the researchers will develop an observational analysis of rainfall and land state during the Florence time period, develop a synthesis of the antecedent and post-landfall land conditions with a focus on the moisture transport and rainfall/water budget, conduct numerical experiments using WRF to test the hypothesis regarding the role of antecedent land state in affecting the inland rainfall from Florence, and compare Hurricane Florence to other similar systems to help refine the conceptual processes involved.

The time-sensitivity of the project lies with the collection of datasets and the distribution of analyses to the scientific community and collaborators from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.