CAREER: Convective Aggregation and the Hydrological Cycle, Cloud Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity

Tropical thunderstorm clouds often clump together into clusters, which affects humidity, rainfall, and cloudiness. This clumping can occur because of patterns of warm and cool ocean surface temperatures or because of spontaneous interactions between the clouds and their surrounding environment, among other factors. This project will study how the clumping of tropical clouds affects the water cycle and Earth’s energy budget – the balance between heating from the sun and the energy that flows from Earth back to space.

The proposed tasks will investigate how heavy rainfall events and the amount of cloudiness change in a warming climate, and how changes in the properties of clouds and how they clump together affect how much Earth will warm in the future. The investigator will use results from many different weather and climate models set up in a simplified framework to address these questions.

The models simulate tropical clouds over an imaginary tropical ocean. This data set of model simulations is unique because it includes a wide range of model types set up in a consistent manner. The investigator will also lead a group of scientists around the world to perform new simulations with the different models that use a specific pattern of warm and cool ocean surface temperatures to control where the thunderstorm clouds clump together.

The current group of simple simulations and the new simulations will be used in combination to achieve the overall goal of understanding tropical cloud clustering and its importance for climate. The investigator will also develop a training program for university students to do K-12 outreach and a suite of educational activities integrated with the research themes of tropical thunderstorm clouds, weather, and climate for school visits.

These activities will be incorporated into an established summer program at Florida State University for high school students.

This project addresses some of the most important questions in climate science, about the role of tropical cloud systems in the water cycle and climate and how cloud systems interact with wind patterns and Earth’s energy budget. It will improve understanding of how tropical clouds change in a warmer climate, which is the biggest source of uncertainty in how much Earth warms in response to an increase in greenhouse gases.

The project supports teaching and training in science across multiple populations. By providing a suite of educational activities and training for K-12 outreach, it will lower barriers to participation and engage a larger, more diverse population in K-12 outreach, including both university student facilitators and K-12 student and teacher participants.

Beyond the benefits to K-12 students of encountering scientist role models, participation will enhance the training and education of the university students by providing teaching experience and improved communication skills. The project supports two Meteorology graduate students, who will gain training in climate science and data analysis.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.