(HNDS-R) Hierarchical Networks of International Order and International Conflict

International orders have a profound impact on international conflict. Nevertheless, the effects of order on conflict and vice-versa are complex and poorly understood. Moreover, historical analogies that are used to aid policy decisions are overwhelmingly drawn from relationships in the Western world.

This research takes a multidimensional approach to improving our understanding of the relationship between international order and conflict. To shed light on the mechanisms that connect order to conflict, the research team uses computational network models, derived from a broad array of historical cases, that connect the dynamics of state behavior to patterns of order at the level of the international system.

To explore the utility of those models, the team develops new network measures of political order and systemic uncertainty and conducts cross-national survey research into the individual-level determinants of support for order. The project has several broader impacts: (1) it contributes to an improved understanding of the order-conflict relationship; (2) it further expands the geographic boundaries of the study of international order and support for order beyond the Western world; and (3) it provides a more concrete foundation for policy recommendations that meaningfully enhance national security.

The goals of this research include the development of computational network models relating international order, domestic political order, and conflict; the extension of those models beyond the context of the Western World, specifically to incorporate Eastern understandings of order; the validation and calibration of those models on original, multi-country survey data; and the development of original network measures of order and uncertainty. These projects will give the research team a considerably better understanding of the implications of different configurations of international order for conflict, improve forecasts of political instability by adding an international dimension to our collective understanding of domestic instability, provide a better understanding of the implications for conflict of a non-Western international order, and provide foundational knowledge to underpin a foreign policy strategy designed to leverage international order to produce peace and mitigate instability.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.