Opening and reestablishment of Kilauea's lower east rift zone magma plumbing system during the 2018 eruption

The project is focused on computer modeling of magma flow in the subsurface beneath Kilauea volcano, Hawaii. During Kilauea's 4-months long 2018 eruption magma flowed beneath the ground surface over a distance of approximately 15 miles from Kilauea's summit before erupting onto the surface. Once erupted, the magma formed lava flows that covered approximately 875 acres of land, destroyed approximately 700 houses, and resulted in close to 1 billion dollars of damage.

Volcanoes typically encompass areas of thousands of square miles, but the actual location where magma breaches the surface is difficult to predict and contingent upon the flow of magma at thousands of feet beneath the surface. Subsurface magma migration can be detected by satellite and geophysical observations, but potential forecasting of volcanic activity and assessment of eruption hazards are contingent upon predictive computer modeling of subsurface magma flow and deformation of the surrounding rock, in particular the magma's ability to break rock in order to advance toward the surface.

This project will leverage the exceptionally diverse and extensive set of observational data from the 2018 eruption of Kilauea in a case study with the goal of advancing the state of the art in computer modeling and forecasting prior to and during an eruption. The project will benefit national health, prosperity and welfare by advancing societal resilience against natural disasters.

A substantial component of the project involves the education of high-school teachers within the Houston Independent School District, the largest school district in Texas and serving a highly diverse urban student population with approximately 80% economically disadvantaged students. Beyond it importance in scientific and industrial research, computational modeling has become a valuable skill as part of the modern manufacturing process and the goal is to promote the teaching of computational modeling at the high-school level.

The objective of the proposed project is to advance understanding about the interaction between magmatic and tectonic components of volcanic systems. It is focused on physics-­based modeling of magma transport during the 2018 eruption of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii. It has been suggested that abrupt seaward movement of Kilauea’s south flank, as during the 2018 M6.9 earthquake, can be facilitated by intrusive magma migration.

Buildup of magma pressure at Kilauea was detected for several years prior to the 2018 eruption, eventually causing magma to intrude for 15 miles down Kilauea’s east rift zone before erupting. A key objective of the project is to quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of magma pressure within Kilauea’s east rift zone in order to provide constraints on stress conditions that may have led to the abrupt displacement of Kilauea’s south flank during the M6.9 earthquake.

The proposed approach includes numerical simulation of magma transport prior to and during the 2018 eruption, integrated with elastic deformation modeling of the magmatic-­tectonic system, using a wide range of observations (GPS, InSAR, tilt, gravity, earthquakes, eruption rate, magma chemistry) as constraints. Advancement of forecasting capabilities in volcanic systems is contingent upon physics­-based models to reliably predict observational data.

The intellectual merit of the proposed project lies in the advancement of physics-based computer modeling through leveraging one of the best­-monitored volcanic eruptions of all time.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.