P2C2: Integrating Multiproxy Records of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Last Millennia to Contextualize 21st (twenty-first) Century Events in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2)

Improving the climate record of past tropical cyclone (TC) activity and related large-scale atmospheric driving mechanisms in the Southeast United States will advance knowledge and understanding of past TC characteristics and their mark left in the coastal environment. This project aims to develop a comprehensive multi-proxy database of tropical cyclone (TC) activity, including storm frequency and intensity throughout the last 150-years for northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM) coastal systems.

Specifically, the researchers will compare annually to seasonally resolved tree-ring records that act as TC proxies with lower resolution records of high intensity TC events recorded in sediment cores.

The project will develop a multi-proxy database of tropical cyclone occurrence for the nGoM by using existing, site-specific, well-calibrated sediment records of TCs in conjunction with instrumental and historical records of TC events to develop a 150-year record of TC events for each site in southeastern US. Additionally, particle size from established sediment records of TCs will be re-analyzed to model TC surge intensity over the 150-year period.

The project will also develop annually resolved tree-ring records of TC activity for the Southeast by analyzing extant collections of multiple tree species (principally slash pine, longleaf pine, and bald cypress) that are known to be long-lived (~200–2,500-years), and are responsive to hydroclimatic variability, in multiple locations throughout the Southeast. The researchers will analyze various tracers including ring width and stable oxygen isotopes for a period of ~150-years to calibrate against the constrained TC chronology developed from sediment and instrumental records.

The potential Broader Impacts include the development and calibration of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) data set over the last 150-years for the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM). This data can be used to improve assessments of hazard impact, coastal ecosystem resiliency, and predictions of Tropical Cyclones. Coastal communities along the nGoM coast are at extreme risk in the light of projected climate change.

Additionally, identifying geographic regions of greatest impact from TCs can inform local stakeholders on recent TC trends and the primary drivers, thus improving hurricane forecasts and response, and saving economic, cultural, and ecologically important resources. The results of the project will be disseminated to climate modelers, and to stakeholders, coastal managers, and policy makers to inform planning for TC damage from high winds, storm surge, and intense rainfall.

Data developed from this research will be made publicly available. The project will support two early career researchers and will provide educational, research training and professional development opportunities for graduate and undergraduate students at University of Alabama Tuscaloosa.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.