Collaborative Research: P2C2--Coral Proxy and Climate Model Comparison to understand Climate Variability in the Intra-Americas Sea Region

The inter-American Seas, which include the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, is identified as highly sensitive to global climate variability with direct social and economic ramifications for this region of 120 million people. It is a primary moisture source for precipitation in the Americas and contains the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool that drives summer precipitation and hurricane intensity and frequency.

The comparison of General circulation models (GCM) and Sea Surface Temperature data (SST) in this region, however, reveals large cold SST and dry precipitation biases hampering predictions of future climate variability in this region. This project aims to characterize and assess SST and hydroclimate variability in the Inter-American Seas using model-data comparison with the goal of pinpointing weaknesses in model skills to improve future projections.

Specifically, the researchers will produce reconstructions of hydroclimate and SST using coral from seven locations back to 1850. These new past climate records and their comparison to direct observations and models will be used to investigate the mechanisms through which decadal SST variability in this region impacts the hydroclimate in the region and North America.

The project will leverage existing SST reconstructions and produce new coral records from existing samples to address discrepancies among GCM, observational SST records, and paleoclimate SST reconstructions.

The potential Broader Impacts include an expansion of the temporal and spatial data coverage of past sea surface temperature and hydroclimate in the IAS region. Other BI include a greater understanding of climate variability at decadal time scales, its drivers and links to large scale atmospheric circulation. Identifying time periods and geographic areas where climate models lose skill in replicating hydroclimate variability in the IAS and understanding the causes for such deficiencies is important for improving the scientific understanding of IAS climate and how it impacts the surrounding land regions, including the United States.

Countries within and along the Inter-American Seas are vulnerable to tropical cyclones, sea-level rise, and decreased water availability. Further, it will improve model derived products for resource managers in the Americas and Caribbean.

The project will develop outreach activities through an existing online course “managing for a changing climate” for which the researchers will provide translation in Spanish, French and Creole than can be used for climate education by various stakeholders. Additionally, the project will support the scientific training and professional development of undergraduate and graduate students, as well as a postdoctoral researcher.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.