Collaborative Research: P2C2--Reconstructing Tropical Cyclone Precipitation throughout the Southeastern United States

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2).

The research team aims to produce long-term annually resolved well-replicated latewood tree-ring width data by generating regional TCP (tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes precipitation) reconstructions across the Southeast United States spanning the past approximately 300-years. Longer TCP records (i.e., records that extend beyond the instrumental period) for the region could provide new information regarding: (1) past and current spatiotemporal characteristics of TCP variability; (2) the full range and amplitude of pre-instrumental TCP; (3) the historical precedence of recent large TCP producing storms such as Hurricane Harvey and Florence and, (4) the influence of oceanic and atmospheric forcing mechanisms on centennial-scale TCP variability and the sensitivity of TCP changes to these forcing mechanisms.

Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs; tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) impact coastal and inland communities due to strong winds, storm surges, and flooding caused by heavy rainfall. While much research effort has focused on studying the magnitude and spatiotemporal variability of TC strength and landfall frequency across the southeastern U.S., the variability of rainfall derived from TCs for this region remains understudied.

This project seeks to provide new information on TCP in the Southeast through analysis of existing instrumental climate records and the development and application of multi-century tree-ring proxy records. The overall objective for the research is to provide a paleoclimate reconstruction of TCP throughout the Southeast using a combination of old growth, older second-growth, and remnant stumps of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) throughout the range of the species.

The research team will test the hypotheses that: (1) the strong relationship between TCP and latewood growth of longleaf pine will allow for the development of a robust multi-century record that documents the spatiotemporal magnitude and variability of TCP within the Southeast U.S.; and (2) large-scale oceanic–atmospheric conditions will interact and exhibit substantive control over the timing and volume of TCP received in the Southeast.

The potential Broader Impacts include greater understanding of precipitation from tropical weather systems in the Southeastern United States, engaging undergraduate and high school students, many of whom are from groups traditionally underrepresented in STEM (special needs students, native American students, first generation college students) in the research and outreach efforts, and science and technology transfer to the US Forest Service.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.