Collaborative Research: Transient response of regional sea level to Antarctic ice shelf fluxes

This project will investigate the effects of Antarctic ice melting on the regional variations of sea level over time. Ocean and climate models will be used in conjunction with observations to study how the timing and location of ice melt affects regional sea level rise. Increasing sea level from climate change impacts coastal communities.

Understanding how those impacts vary globally is an important priority. The project will also provide workshop training for teachers in K-12 schools on the topic of using numerical models to make forecasts and predictions.

The primary objective of the proposed study is to investigate the time-evolving sensitivity of regional sea level to fluxes associated with Antarctic ice shelf basal melt. This question will be addressed using a hierarchy of ocean and climate models, ranging from idealized reduced-gravity models to an eddy-permitting ocean model to a state-of-the-art coupled global climate model, informed by observational data.

Specific questions to be addressed include: (1) What are the timescales, amplitudes, and patterns of dynamic sea level changes around the globe in response to subsurface freshwater and latent heat perturbations along the Antarctic coast? (2) What are the dynamic mechanisms in the ocean governing these responses? (3) What are the potential impacts of Antarctic ice shelf basal melt fluxes on sea level at locations around the globe, on timescales from decades to centuries? The response of the ocean to meltwater injection and latent heat cooling at depth, which is expected to be dictated by a mixture of baroclinic and barotropic circulation anomalies, has been largely absent from previous literature on sea level rise.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.