Paleodemographic and ancient DNA study of a potential epidemic site

Infectious diseases such as the medieval Black Death (plague), 20th-century Ebola, and SARS-CoV-2 have shaped patterns of human mortality past and present. This project advances our understanding of human infectious diseases and their impact on human populations and societies. The investigators bring together bioarchaeological, genetic, and paleoepidemiological expertise to examine a prehistoric settlement where signs of epidemic disease and catastrophic mortality have been detected.

The project can advance knowledge of how deadly infectious diseases have behaved and evolved in human populations and broadens the comparative context for modern-day research on disease prediction, prevention, and control. The project also supports student training and mentoring in STEM, public science outreach efforts, and international scientific collaborations.

The researchers reconstruct health and mortality profiles in addition to estimating demographic information and pathological indicators. Mortality patterns are compared to those of other known deadly infectious diseases, especially the Black Death, during which the elderly and frail individuals of all ages were disproportionately killed. In addition, bone and tooth samples are collected for genetic analysis using state-of-the-art techniques to identify the pathogen that caused the catastrophic mortality.

With a pathogen identification the investigators can examine geographic and temporal variation in the mortality patterns it produced. The project data can generate models available to researchers interested in further analyses of genetic and environmental factors influencing human health and disease in past populations.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.