Navigating the Risks of Hydroclimatic Extremes for Freshwater Ecosystem Services in Forest Landscapes

REACTION sheds light on the risks posed by hydroclimatic extremes and compound events (such as heatwaves, floods, droughts, and heavy rainfalls) to freshwater ecosystem services in forest landscapes.

By combining an interdisciplinary risk framework with substantial data harmonization efforts and innovative data-driven modeling techniques, we explore existing data resources, co-design relevant indicators and build models that simulate the complex interlinkages between statistically rare extreme events and freshwater ecosystem function/services.

This enables us to quantify and map (1) the hazards, i.e., the hydroclimatic threats, (2) the exposure of freshwater ecosystem services to these hazards, and (3) the vulnerability, i.e., susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacity driven by environmental factors and existing human stressors in four unique case studies across Europe, which showcase diverse ecological and societal challenges.

Based on a probabilistic risk model, we combine these three risk components and provide spatially explicit insights into present-day hydroclimatic risks for ecosystem services, and future risk under a business-as-usual scenario.

Considering potential synergies and trade-offs with existing and projected human water uses, we co-develop management and restoration strategies with our stakeholders and test their effectiveness in reducing the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystem services and the risk from hydroclimatic extreme events.