Climate Cooling from Volcanic Super-eruptions and European Epidemics during Preindustrial Times

PurposeThis six-year project will elucidate socio-ecological mechanisms for how super-eruptions cause sudden changes in climate, and hence epidemics or even pandemics. Focus is on the Plague of Justinian that coincided with two large volcanic eruptions in AD 536 and 540.

Time Plan and MethodsAn ecological and climate-driven model of disease transmission will be created of epidemic growth, demographics and animal vectors/reservoirs of disease. It will be forced by a global climate model and compared with historical data.

In Years 1-2, the epidemiological/ecological model will be constructed off-line for a few locations of cases of the Plague of Justinian and other epidemics after eruptions. In Years 3-4, the model will be applied and refined in global simulations.

In Years 5-6, global simulations of these cases will be analysed to test hypotheses about socio-ecological mechanisms for the volcanism-climate-epidemic linkage, informing a theory.

Project OrganisationThe project applies expertise in meteorology, geology, archaeology, medicine, biology and maths of dynamical systems in Sweden and France. There are 7 senior participants and 4 postdoctoral scholars, as well as 4 senior unfunded collaborators.

Significance of Planned ResearchWith a new class of model, the project will advance understanding of properties of epidemics in terms of socio-ecological and climatic factors, such as cooling from eruptions. Humanity will be better prepared for future pandemics as a result.