Identifying, understanding and adapting to transboundary climate risks in the global minerals–energy–food complex (MEFadapt)

In an increasingly connected world, climate risks cross borders and their cascading impacts can be felt all around the world. In 2007–08, for example, drought in Asia contributed to food insecurity in Africa and elsewhere.

Transboundary climate risks interact with non-climate pressures and can create compounding systemic risks that are becoming increasingly complex to manage.

Bans on Russian oil and gas, supply-chain shocks due to shortage of fertiliser and disruption to mineral supply chains currently pose additional risks to global food security.

The project “Identifying, understanding and adapting to transboundary climate risks in the global minerals–energy–food complex” (MEFadapt) analyses the nature and magnitude of transboundary climate risks in the minerals–energy–food complex so as to understand the potential of global supply chain disruptions, and to inform just, legitimate and effective adaptation governance in Sweden, the EU and beyond.

To this end, MEFadapt builds on an unparalleled existing database that includes millions of per shipment declarations, billions of maritime transport records and subnational agricultural and mineral production.

In addition, a unified framework is developed, applied and tested through a pioneering mix of quantitative and qualitative methods—including modelling, scenario analysis, network analysis, case studies and interactive policy simulation—and uniquely detailed and visualised datasets describing global trade and production.