Quantification of the impact of climate change on the built environment at regional scale

Our built environment is founded on soils and rocks, with engineering properties affected by the geological and anthropological history, as well as environmental conditions. Consequently, both ground deformations and stability will be affected by climate change.

Presently, there are no models that are able to quantify the impact of climate change on the stability and ground movements of geostructures at a regional scale, accounting for the natural variability of geomaterials.

Novel experimental data will be used to extend the models for thermo-hydro-mechanical response of fully saturated natural clays to describe the processes in the partially saturated vadose zone.

A major component will be an efficient scalable computational framework for multiphysics modelling,  exploiting the core developed as part of Digital Twin Cities Centre and the FEniCS project, open platforms developed at Chalmers.

A key aspect will be the incorporation of the spatial heterogeneity of natural soils and the probabilistic nature of the environmental loading on the relevant interfaces (atmosphere, upper and lower aquifer).

The framework will be applied for quantitative geotechnical climate impact modelling of two examples: subsidence in an urban environment (Gothenburg) and a marginally stable quick clay slope near the Göta river.

The resulting quantitative geotechnical impact modelling framework will  enable forecasting the impact of climate change on the built environment.