PV statistics based on customs data

Purpose and goal:

To improve the knowledge and the statistical situation on the global PV market, a calculation method has been developed to estimate installed PV capacity in areas without adequate official statistics. The method is based on trade flows of hardware. Currently, the available statistics on installed PV capacity on many emerging markets consist of estimates without clear statistical methodology.

In the project, the method was developed and finalized into a statistical tool that can be offered to market actors to follow the global PV market development. Expected results and effects:

Inside the frame of the project, a method development has been carried out, which has resulted in a better time resolution and data utilization. In addition, the prototype consisting of an Excel file has been transformed into a python-developed program that can be used with a simple graphic user interface. The results and performance have been considered to be good enough for the model output to be used in a global agency market report.

Future cooperation with the International Energy Agency is expected and possible commercial market analysis projects are considered realistic. Approach and implementation:

The project has been divided into two main parts, a self-financed diploma work and a grant-financed model- and program development. The diploma work has been carried out by master´s engineering students and the program development of an internal programming competence. Good synergies between the two sub-projects were detected.

In addition, a customer analysis has been performed, where the program was presented to both individual market players in Europe and Asia and to the International Energy Agency (IEA) with promising results.